Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$500.86

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 34 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,310

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,971

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$34.75	74% 105016-37056 (142072)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$45.48	54% 16542-13961 (30503)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$467.03	—	-$467.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$704.4	$1.2K	+$512.51
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 41.5¢	$281.04	—	-$281.04	56% 15897-12507 (28404)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 81.9¢	$850.07	$752.29	-$97.78	51% 11991-11459 (23450)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 29.7¢	$547.46	—	-$547.46	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 61.2¢	$661.96	—	-$661.96	75% 9865-3284 (13149)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 23.5¢	$170.69	$578.89	+$408.2	65% 114511-61547 (176058)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 55.7¢	$602.88	$476.15	+$379.43	55% 14903-12392 (27295)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 27.4¢	$134.63	$414.98	+$280.36	52% 12286-11316 (23602)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 58¢	$286.93	$395.58	+$108.65	47% 6449-7132 (13581)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$414.77	$265.1	-$149.67	52% 21072-19227 (40299)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$248.83	—	-$248.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$165.94	$265.1	+$99.16
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 49.9¢	$235.28	$468.41	+$233.13	52% 10518-9861 (20379)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 52.7¢	$401.56	$355.99	+$310.43	54% 13614-11674 (25288)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Upavg 85.6¢	$235.46	—	-$235.46	53% 10405-9413 (19818)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 74.6¢	$352.76	$299.96	-$52.8	59% 11231-7705 (18936)
BO bosona	Downavg 77¢	$225.04	$277.29	+$52.25	55% 51580-41990 (93570)
pspspsps5	Downavg 72.4¢	$205.69	$266.12	+$60.42	45% 40028-47949 (87977)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 25.1¢	$59.37	$198.11	+$138.74	56% 60462-47011 (107473)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 78.6¢	$203.8	$192.73	-$11.07	63% 60809-35275 (96084)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 7.6¢	$18.23	$153.9	+$135.67	61% 46015-29175 (75190)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 28.6¢	$85.57	$145.38	+$118.67	65% 130132-70051 (200183)
machinelearned	Downavg 66¢	$123.1	$137.63	+$14.53	55% 9805-8128 (17933)
13 13897651	Downavg 52.1¢	$101.67	$185.35	+$83.68	56% 8722-6811 (15533)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 31.1¢	$64.53	$121.69	+$57.16	66% 130543-67485 (198028)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 25.3¢	$85.57	$185.58	+$115.99	61% 98514-62493 (161007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$30.28	—	-$29.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.3¢	$47.02	$185.58	+$145.18

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,465.25

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$34.75

Record

74%

105016-37056 (142072)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,171.43

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$45.48

Record

54%

16542-13961 (30503)

Both legs:

Up$467.0340.3¢-$467.03

Down$704.457.9¢+$512.51

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$281.04

Value

—

PnL

-$281.04

Record

56%

15897-12507 (28404)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$850.07

Value

$752.29

PnL

-$97.78

Record

51%

11991-11459 (23450)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$547.46

Value

—

PnL

-$547.46

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$661.96

Value

—

PnL

-$661.96

Record

75%

9865-3284 (13149)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$170.69

Value

$578.89

PnL

+$408.2

Record

65%

114511-61547 (176058)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$602.88

Value

$476.15

PnL

+$379.43

Record

55%

14903-12392 (27295)

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$134.63

Value

$414.98

PnL

+$280.36

Record

52%

12286-11316 (23602)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$286.93

Value

$395.58

PnL

+$108.65

Record

47%

6449-7132 (13581)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$414.77

Value

$265.1

PnL

-$149.67

Record

52%

21072-19227 (40299)

Both legs:

Up$248.8356.3¢-$248.83

Down$165.9462.6¢+$99.16

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$235.28

Value

$468.41

PnL

+$233.13

Record

52%

10518-9861 (20379)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$401.56

Value

$355.99

PnL

+$310.43

Record

54%

13614-11674 (25288)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR

Invested

$235.46

Value

—

PnL

-$235.46

Record

53%

10405-9413 (19818)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$352.76

Value

$299.96

PnL

-$52.8

Record

59%

11231-7705 (18936)

bosona

Down

Invested

$225.04

Value

$277.29

PnL

+$52.25

Record

55%

51580-41990 (93570)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$205.69

Value

$266.12

PnL

+$60.42

Record

45%

40028-47949 (87977)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$59.37

Value

$198.11

PnL

+$138.74

Record

56%

60462-47011 (107473)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$203.8

Value

$192.73

PnL

-$11.07

Record

63%

60809-35275 (96084)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$18.23

Value

$153.9

PnL

+$135.67

Record

61%

46015-29175 (75190)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$85.57

Value

$145.38

PnL

+$118.67

Record

65%

130132-70051 (200183)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$123.1

Value

$137.63

PnL

+$14.53

Record

55%

9805-8128 (17933)

13897651

Down

Invested

$101.67

Value

$185.35

PnL

+$83.68

Record

56%

8722-6811 (15533)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$64.53

Value

$121.69

PnL

+$57.16

Record

66%

130543-67485 (198028)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.57

Value

$185.58

PnL

+$115.99

Record

61%

98514-62493 (161007)

Both legs:

Up$30.2830.2¢-$29.19

Down$47.0225.3¢+$145.18

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 34 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x055041c5...12db85

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793991600

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $3.5K

+$34.75

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0

blue.birds

Down — $752.29

ply-pm0

Up — $0

NIULAI4

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $578.89

+$408.2

GoodFallen

Down — $476.15

+$379.43

PBot-5

Down — $414.98

+$280.36

asdcaxz

Down — $395.58

+$108.65

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