Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$369.56

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 35 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,532

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,044

Combined PnL-$648.4

Down — 66%Up — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Downavg 78.8¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$284.42	51% 886-868 (1754)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176	Downavg 78.9¢	$831.16	$1.1K	+$222.04	53% 6140-5399 (11539)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 76.7¢	$506.79	$552.08	+$45.29	55% 7780-6363 (14143)
Atomforge	Downavg 79.3¢	$392.32	$494.75	+$102.43	64% 4309-2376 (6685)
machinelearned	Downavg 75.8¢	$388.14	$464.45	+$76.31	55% 8953-7389 (16342)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 69¢	$322.86	$467.98	+$145.11	58% 38470-27559 (66029)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 86.4¢	$279.74	$242.23	-$36.72	60% 12572-8347 (20919)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 27.5¢	$328	—	-$328	50% 5575-5636 (11211)
YO YouSayUpISayDown	Downavg 71¢	$148.97	$205.74	+$56.77	53% 3726-3240 (6966)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$229.11	$112.9	-$116.22	56% 14907-11713 (26620)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.1¢	$88.17	$112.9	+$24.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$140.95	—	-$140.95
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 38.8¢	$96.9	—	-$96.9	35% 19111-36114 (55225)
BoneOhio	Downavg 92.2¢	$100.24	$108.66	+$8.42	74% 103028-36547 (139575)
Bossgirl	Downavg 53.2¢	$57.94	$109	+$51.06	54% 4651-3951 (8602)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 95.5¢	$62.49	$65.46	+$2.97	66% 127066-65377 (192443)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 20.9¢	$68.24	—	-$68.24	46% 38658-45730 (84388)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$68.18	$60.02	-$8.17	65% 126412-67571 (193983)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$51.8	$60	+$8.2	55% 24166-19500 (43666)
BE berlinskies<$100	Downavg 84.2¢	$44.98	$53.42	+$8.44	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 6.5¢	$19.15	—	-$19.15	59% 62654-43738 (106392)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$37.11	$46	+$8.89	56% 8331-6467 (14798)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$38.72	—	-$38.72	49% 78487-82044 (160531)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$25.54	$39.98	+$14.44	50% 7972-8009 (15981)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$45.68	$36.21	+$11.16	64% 24825-13713 (38538)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96.6¢	$27.01	$27.97	+$0.96	61% 96010-60519 (156529)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97.6¢	$24.48	$25.08	+$0.6	52% 91284-85731 (177015)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down

Invested

$1,058.65

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$284.42

Record

51%

886-868 (1754)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176

Down

Invested

$831.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$222.04

Record

53%

6140-5399 (11539)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$506.79

Value

$552.08

PnL

+$45.29

Record

55%

7780-6363 (14143)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$392.32

Value

$494.75

PnL

+$102.43

Record

64%

4309-2376 (6685)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$388.14

Value

$464.45

PnL

+$76.31

Record

55%

8953-7389 (16342)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$322.86

Value

$467.98

PnL

+$145.11

Record

58%

38470-27559 (66029)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$279.74

Value

$242.23

PnL

-$36.72

Record

60%

12572-8347 (20919)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$328

Value

—

PnL

-$328

Record

50%

5575-5636 (11211)

YouSayUpISayDown

Down

Invested

$148.97

Value

$205.74

PnL

+$56.77

Record

53%

3726-3240 (6966)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$229.11

Value

$112.9

PnL

-$116.22

Record

56%

14907-11713 (26620)

Both legs:

Down$88.1778.1¢+$24.73

Up$140.9528.5¢-$140.95

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$96.9

Value

—

PnL

-$96.9

Record

35%

19111-36114 (55225)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$100.24

Value

$108.66

PnL

+$8.42

Record

74%

103028-36547 (139575)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$57.94

Value

$109

PnL

+$51.06

Record

54%

4651-3951 (8602)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$62.49

Value

$65.46

PnL

+$2.97

Record

66%

127066-65377 (192443)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$68.24

Value

—

PnL

-$68.24

Record

46%

38658-45730 (84388)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$68.18

Value

$60.02

PnL

-$8.17

Record

65%

126412-67571 (193983)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$51.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$8.2

Record

55%

24166-19500 (43666)

berlinskies<$100

Down

Invested

$44.98

Value

$53.42

PnL

+$8.44

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$19.15

Value

—

PnL

-$19.15

Record

59%

62654-43738 (106392)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$37.11

Value

$46

PnL

+$8.89

Record

56%

8331-6467 (14798)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$38.72

Value

—

PnL

-$38.72

Record

49%

78487-82044 (160531)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$25.54

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$14.44

Record

50%

7972-8009 (15981)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$45.68

Value

$36.21

PnL

+$11.16

Record

64%

24825-13713 (38538)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$27.01

Value

$27.97

PnL

+$0.96

Record

61%

96010-60519 (156529)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$24.48

Value

$25.08

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

91284-85731 (177015)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 35 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x8f6186e8...f8e454

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793549400

Traders in this Market

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down — $1.3K

+$284.42

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176

Down — $1.1K

+$222.04

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $552.08

+$45.29

Atomforge

Down — $494.75

+$102.43

machinelearned

Down — $464.45

+$76.31

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $467.98

+$145.11

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $242.23

-$36.72

ply-pm0

CTR

Up — $0

-$328

YouSayUpISayDown

Down — $205.74

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded