Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Up 59%
3 arb excluded
$3.4K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 28 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Upavg 88¢ | $860.71 | $977.57 | +$116.87 | 74% 103036-36547 (139583) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 63.6¢ | $1.0K | $935.75 | -$92.28 | 56% 14912-11721 (26633) |
TE TelawinCTR | Downavg 49.1¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 50% 352-351 (703) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 40.8¢ | $581.97 | — | -$581.97 | 50% 5579-5642 (11221) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 51.7¢ | $213.48 | $380.77 | +$167.29 | 56% 8338-6477 (14815) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 25.7¢ | $213.48 | — | -$213.48 | 64% 58895-33457 (92352) |
AN antsaslyku | Upavg 56.7¢ | $114.9 | $162.32 | +$47.42 | 65% 112557-59402 (171959) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $80.2 | $152.3 | +$72.1 | 55% 18359-14947 (33306) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $377.99 | $75 | -$302.99 | 55% 8959-7393 (16352) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.7¢ | $55.25 | $75 | +$19.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.9¢ | $322.74 | — | -$322.74 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $124.43 | $83.72 | -$38.88 | 55% 7784-6369 (14153) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $77.8 | — | -$77.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $44.37 | $83.72 | +$38.92 | |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $79.76 | $90.85 | +$11.09 | 62% 44272-27256 (71528) |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $121.55 | $152.78 | +$31.23 | 64% 40631-23312 (63943) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.1¢ | $39.05 | — | -$39.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54¢ | $82.5 | $152.78 | +$70.28 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $68.08 | — | -$68.08 | 60% 12577-8352 (20929) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 58.2¢ | $42.41 | $66.24 | +$23.84 | 66% 127086-65386 (192472) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 93.3¢ | $46.32 | $49.62 | +$3.3 | 55% 45991-38342 (84333) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 63.1¢ | $28.51 | $45.15 | +$16.64 | 61% 96025-60531 (156556) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $22.72 | $43.72 | +$21 | 52% 91299-85747 (177046) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $35.28 | $36 | +$0.72 | 65% 126430-67579 (194009) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $27 | — | -$27 | 55% 24171-19504 (43675) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $48.49 | $96.38 | +$47.9 | 56% 58622-45278 (103900) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 68.7¢ | $18.52 | $26.95 | +$8.43 | 64% 4319-2379 (6698) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 59.1¢ | $48.54 | — | -$40.88 | 64% 24852-13722 (38574) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $10.89 | $11 | +$0.11 | 93% 24291-1810 (26101) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $19.45 | — | -$19.45 | 58% 61075-44602 (105677) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 98% 6915-167 (7082) |
BoneOhioInvested
$860.71
Value
$977.57
PnL
+$116.87
Record
74%
103036-36547 (139583)
Invested
$1,028.02
Value
$935.75
PnL
-$92.28
Record
56%
14912-11721 (26633)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
50%
352-351 (703)
Invested
$581.97
Value
—
PnL
-$581.97
Record
50%
5579-5642 (11221)
Invested
$213.48
Value
$380.77
PnL
+$167.29
Record
56%
8338-6477 (14815)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$213.48
Value
—
PnL
-$213.48
Record
64%
58895-33457 (92352)
Invested
$114.9
Value
$162.32
PnL
+$47.42
Record
65%
112557-59402 (171959)
Invested
$80.2
Value
$152.3
PnL
+$72.1
Record
55%
18359-14947 (33306)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$377.99
Value
$75
PnL
-$302.99
Record
55%
8959-7393 (16352)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.43
Value
$83.72
PnL
-$38.88
Record
55%
7784-6369 (14153)
Both legs:
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$79.76
Value
$90.85
PnL
+$11.09
Record
62%
44272-27256 (71528)
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$121.55
Value
$152.78
PnL
+$31.23
Record
64%
40631-23312 (63943)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.08
Value
—
PnL
-$68.08
Record
60%
12577-8352 (20929)
Invested
$42.41
Value
$66.24
PnL
+$23.84
Record
66%
127086-65386 (192472)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$46.32
Value
$49.62
PnL
+$3.3
Record
55%
45991-38342 (84333)
Invested
$28.51
Value
$45.15
PnL
+$16.64
Record
61%
96025-60531 (156556)
Invested
$22.72
Value
$43.72
PnL
+$21
Record
52%
91299-85747 (177046)
Invested
$35.28
Value
$36
PnL
+$0.72
Record
65%
126430-67579 (194009)
Invested
$27
Value
—
PnL
-$27
Record
55%
24171-19504 (43675)
Invested
$48.49
Value
$96.38
PnL
+$47.9
Record
56%
58622-45278 (103900)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$18.52
Value
$26.95
PnL
+$8.43
Record
64%
4319-2379 (6698)
Invested
$48.54
Value
—
PnL
-$40.88
Record
64%
24852-13722 (38574)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.11
Record
93%
24291-1810 (26101)
Invested
$19.45
Value
—
PnL
-$19.45
Record
58%
61075-44602 (105677)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
6915-167 (7082)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Up — $977.57
CrouchPredictions
Up — $935.75
Telawin
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
Up — $380.77
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
antsaslyku
Up — $162.32
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $152.3
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded