Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Down (79%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$291.05

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,777

Combined PnL-$208

Up4 traders

Total Value$68.91

Total Shares303

Combined PnL-$83.05

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 74.8¢	$607.07	$642.46	+$35.39	56% 16023-12652 (28675)
95 0x954b...c0e0	Downavg 73¢	$759.59	$514.72	-$244.87	—
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 70.8¢	$351.22	$337.72	-$13.5	59% 11420-7847 (19267)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 60.2¢	$230.88	$259.19	+$28.31	30% 12269-28216 (40485)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 78.4¢	$108.15	$100.01	-$8.15	56% 60779-47271 (108050)
ohioism	Downavg 80.7¢	$111.91	$90.02	-$21.89	63% 42627-25355 (67982)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$55.01	$68.97	+$13.96	48% 6887-7490 (14377)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$59.42	$65.05	+$5.63	67% 22516-10876 (33392)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 34.7¢	$84.05	$50.05	-$34.01	61% 46285-29472 (75757)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 78¢	$26.58	$34.08	+$7.5	61% 98877-62775 (161652)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$25.75	$33.7	+$7.95	66% 130972-67764 (198736)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$46.12	$31.48	-$14.63	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 32.9¢	$59.61	$18.85	-$40.76	58% 63507-46701 (110208)
BY ByteBadger93<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$12.86	$8.91	-$3.95	55% 1746-1424 (3170)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 88¢	$4.4	$5	+$0.6	52% 12432-11475 (23907)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 83¢	$4.15	$5	+$0.85	55% 52018-43125 (95143)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$3.83	$2.65	-$1.18	64% 5030-2825 (7855)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 33.1¢	$25.05	$0.01	-$8.24	65% 130645-70397 (201042)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$0	-$0.05	65% 114804-61868 (176672)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$607.07

Value

$642.46

PnL

+$35.39

Record

56%

16023-12652 (28675)

0x954b...c0e0

Down

Invested

$759.59

Value

$514.72

PnL

-$244.87

Record

—

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$351.22

Value

$337.72

PnL

-$13.5

Record

59%

11420-7847 (19267)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$230.88

Value

$259.19

PnL

+$28.31

Record

30%

12269-28216 (40485)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$108.15

Value

$100.01

PnL

-$8.15

Record

56%

60779-47271 (108050)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$111.91

Value

$90.02

PnL

-$21.89

Record

63%

42627-25355 (67982)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$55.01

Value

$68.97

PnL

+$13.96

Record

48%

6887-7490 (14377)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$59.42

Value

$65.05

PnL

+$5.63

Record

67%

22516-10876 (33392)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$84.05

Value

$50.05

PnL

-$34.01

Record

61%

46285-29472 (75757)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$26.58

Value

$34.08

PnL

+$7.5

Record

61%

98877-62775 (161652)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$25.75

Value

$33.7

PnL

+$7.95

Record

66%

130972-67764 (198736)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Down

Invested

$46.12

Value

$31.48

PnL

-$14.63

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$59.61

Value

$18.85

PnL

-$40.76

Record

58%

63507-46701 (110208)

ByteBadger93<$100

Down

Invested

$12.86

Value

$8.91

PnL

-$3.95

Record

55%

1746-1424 (3170)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$4.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

12432-11475 (23907)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$4.15

Value

PnL

+$0.85

Record

55%

52018-43125 (95143)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$3.83

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$1.18

Record

64%

5030-2825 (7855)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$25.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$8.24

Record

65%

130645-70397 (201042)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

65%

114804-61868 (176672)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.