Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
35
Down 37%
$14.8K
$-12.8K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 35 top traders (37%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 40.7¢ | $2.0K | $5.0K | +$3.0K | 58% 3248-2345 (5593) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | Upavg 43.4¢ | $1.3K | $3.0K | +$1.7K | 73% 95492-36137 (131629) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 55.4¢ | $8.0K | — | $-8.0K | 50% 8443-8488 (16931) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 80¢ | $2.3K | $1.7K | -$634.9 | 75% 295-99 (394) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.12 | 89% 29663-3561 (33224) |
 wowitsamazingCTR | Downavg 40.4¢ | $851.16 | — | -$816.81 | 67% 22516-10876 (33392) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 75.2¢ | $743.22 | $708.33 | -$34.89 | 55% 52460-42905 (95365) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Downavg 58.9¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 64% 5030-2825 (7855) |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Downavg 61.5¢ | $532.7 | — | -$532.7 | 59% 11420-7847 (19267) |
AL almach | Upavg 67¢ | $675.88 | $633.2 | -$42.68 | 55% 50273-41876 (92149) |
BO bosona | Upavg 85.1¢ | $676.44 | $605.26 | -$71.18 | 55% 51803-42237 (94040) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR | Downavg 58.3¢ | $827.1 | — | -$827.1 | 53% 626-550 (1176) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 54.1¢ | $502.23 | — | -$502.23 | 30% 12269-28216 (40485) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 46.7¢ | $212.37 | $454.32 | +$241.94 | 56% 77627-59916 (137543) |
95 0x954b...c0e0CTR | Downavg 85.9¢ | $757.67 | — | -$757.67 | — |
AD adururuCTR | Downavg 49.4¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 53% 408-359 (767) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR | Downavg 59.8¢ | $599.5 | — | -$599.5 | 67% 1882-944 (2826) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $321.15 | $324.39 | +$3.24 | 74% 105203-37122 (142325) |
 BossgirlCTR | Downavg 61.7¢ | $737.23 | — | -$737.23 | 54% 4793-4035 (8828) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 56.2¢ | $270.33 | $270 | -$0.33 | 48% 6887-7490 (14377) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $247.76 | $248.01 | +$0.25 | 59% 63961-45114 (109075) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 45.8¢ | $146.4 | $179.99 | +$33.59 | 51% 12360-11859 (24219) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 30¢ | $42.4 | $141.31 | +$98.91 | 58% 63507-46701 (110208) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 39.9¢ | $87.95 | $135 | +$47.05 | 56% 60779-47271 (108050) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 43.2¢ | $28.05 | $65 | +$36.95 | 61% 46285-29472 (75757) |
Invested
$2,034.23
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$3.0K
Record
58%
3248-2345 (5593)
Invested
$1,318.65
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
73%
95492-36137 (131629)
Invested
$8,015.06
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
50%
8443-8488 (16931)
Invested
$2,328.45
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$634.9
Record
75%
295-99 (394)
Invested
$1,100.88
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.12
Record
89%
29663-3561 (33224)
wowitsamazingCTRInvested
$851.16
Value
—
PnL
-$816.81
Record
67%
22516-10876 (33392)
Invested
$743.22
Value
$708.33
PnL
-$34.89
Record
55%
52460-42905 (95365)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$1,225.37
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
64%
5030-2825 (7855)
Invested
$532.7
Value
—
PnL
-$532.7
Record
59%
11420-7847 (19267)
Invested
$675.88
Value
$633.2
PnL
-$42.68
Record
55%
50273-41876 (92149)
Invested
$676.44
Value
$605.26
PnL
-$71.18
Record
55%
51803-42237 (94040)
Invested
$827.1
Value
—
PnL
-$827.1
Record
53%
626-550 (1176)
Invested
$502.23
Value
—
PnL
-$502.23
Record
30%
12269-28216 (40485)
Invested
$212.37
Value
$454.32
PnL
+$241.94
Record
56%
77627-59916 (137543)
Invested
$757.67
Value
—
PnL
-$757.67
Record
—
Invested
$1,428.88
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
53%
408-359 (767)
Invested
$599.5
Value
—
PnL
-$599.5
Record
67%
1882-944 (2826)
BoneOhioInvested
$321.15
Value
$324.39
PnL
+$3.24
Record
74%
105203-37122 (142325)
BossgirlCTRInvested
$737.23
Value
—
PnL
-$737.23
Record
54%
4793-4035 (8828)
Invested
$270.33
Value
$270
PnL
-$0.33
Record
48%
6887-7490 (14377)
Invested
$247.76
Value
$248.01
PnL
+$0.25
Record
59%
63961-45114 (109075)
Invested
$146.4
Value
$179.99
PnL
+$33.59
Record
51%
12360-11859 (24219)
Invested
$42.4
Value
$141.31
PnL
+$98.91
Record
58%
63507-46701 (110208)
Invested
$87.95
Value
$135
PnL
+$47.05
Record
56%
60779-47271 (108050)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$28.05
Value
$65
PnL
+$36.95
Record
61%
46285-29472 (75757)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $5.0K
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
Up — $3.0K
RLWG
CTRDown — $0
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Up — $1.7K
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
wowitsamazing
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
Up — $708.33
Atomforge
CTRDown — $0
1000monkeys
CTRDown — $0
almach
Up — $633.2