Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
28
Down 52%
$4.0K
$-4.0K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 28 top traders (50%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 47.7¢ | $565.98 | $1.2K | +$612.18 | 58% 3206-2304 (5510) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 69.8¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 56% 16006-12645 (28651) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.6¢ | $917.25 | $930.46 | +$13.21 | 89% 29513-3559 (33072) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 67.3¢ | $553.88 | — | -$553.88 | 30% 12233-28187 (40420) |
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR | Downavg 53.1¢ | $772.83 | — | -$772.83 | 51% 712-671 (1383) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 71¢ | $675.2 | — | -$675.2 | 55% 51720-42173 (93893) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 81.3¢ | $574.56 | — | -$574.56 | 55% 50268-41869 (92137) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 85¢ | $519.05 | $610.78 | +$91.73 | 75% 9921-3320 (13241) |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Downavg 65.4¢ | $524.32 | — | -$524.32 | 59% 11357-7812 (19169) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 57.9¢ | $419.2 | — | -$419.2 | 55% 52367-42838 (95205) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 84.8¢ | $421.11 | $496.73 | +$75.62 | 66% 1867-943 (2810) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 78.9¢ | $230.91 | — | -$230.91 | 48% 6746-7394 (14140) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 26.5¢ | $95.68 | $215.88 | +$120.2 | 61% 46204-29379 (75583) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 61.5¢ | $101.23 | $95 | -$6.23 | 51% 12246-11736 (23982) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $78.36 | — | -$78.36 | 63% 42543-25276 (67819) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 31.3¢ | $42.27 | $80 | +$37.73 | 56% 60679-47194 (107873) |
AS asdaefefCTR | Downavg 72.4¢ | $116.35 | — | -$116.35 | 66% 130798-67676 (198474) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 70.4¢ | $94.97 | — | -$94.97 | 61% 98748-62704 (161452) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | Upavg 37.6¢ | $76.02 | $202.13 | +$126.11 | 73% 95480-36128 (131608) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $52.94 | — | -$13.82 | 58% 63423-46617 (110040) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $63.36 | $68 | +$4.64 | 58% 39867-28830 (68697) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $42.82 | $39.82 | -$3 | 55% 51661-42835 (94496) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $38.03 | $73.38 | +$35.35 | 67% 22505-10861 (33366) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 63.3¢ | $36.01 | $27.83 | -$5.3 | 65% 130470-70278 (200748) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 56.9¢ | $15.25 | $25 | +$9.75 | 52% 12386-11438 (23824) |
Invested
$565.98
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$612.18
Record
58%
3206-2304 (5510)
Invested
$1,040.34
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
56%
16006-12645 (28651)
Invested
$917.25
Value
$930.46
PnL
+$13.21
Record
89%
29513-3559 (33072)
Invested
$553.88
Value
—
PnL
-$553.88
Record
30%
12233-28187 (40420)
Invested
$772.83
Value
—
PnL
-$772.83
Record
51%
712-671 (1383)
Invested
$675.2
Value
—
PnL
-$675.2
Record
55%
51720-42173 (93893)
Invested
$574.56
Value
—
PnL
-$574.56
Record
55%
50268-41869 (92137)
NIULAI4Invested
$519.05
Value
$610.78
PnL
+$91.73
Record
75%
9921-3320 (13241)
Invested
$524.32
Value
—
PnL
-$524.32
Record
59%
11357-7812 (19169)
Invested
$419.2
Value
—
PnL
-$419.2
Record
55%
52367-42838 (95205)
Invested
$421.11
Value
$496.73
PnL
+$75.62
Record
66%
1867-943 (2810)
Invested
$230.91
Value
—
PnL
-$230.91
Record
48%
6746-7394 (14140)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$95.68
Value
$215.88
PnL
+$120.2
Record
61%
46204-29379 (75583)
Invested
$101.23
Value
$95
PnL
-$6.23
Record
51%
12246-11736 (23982)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$78.36
Value
—
PnL
-$78.36
Record
63%
42543-25276 (67819)
Invested
$42.27
Value
$80
PnL
+$37.73
Record
56%
60679-47194 (107873)
Invested
$116.35
Value
—
PnL
-$116.35
Record
66%
130798-67676 (198474)
Invested
$94.97
Value
—
PnL
-$94.97
Record
61%
98748-62704 (161452)
Invested
$76.02
Value
$202.13
PnL
+$126.11
Record
73%
95480-36128 (131608)
Invested
$52.94
Value
—
PnL
-$13.82
Record
58%
63423-46617 (110040)
Invested
$63.36
Value
$68
PnL
+$4.64
Record
58%
39867-28830 (68697)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$42.82
Value
$39.82
PnL
-$3
Record
55%
51661-42835 (94496)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$38.03
Value
$73.38
PnL
+$35.35
Record
67%
22505-10861 (33366)
Invested
$36.01
Value
$27.83
PnL
-$5.3
Record
65%
130470-70278 (200748)
Invested
$15.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$9.75
Record
52%
12386-11438 (23824)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $930.46
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
KARIZMATIKU
CTRDown — $0
bosona
CTRDown — $0
almach
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $610.78
1000monkeys
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
CTRDown — $0