Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (81%) · Down at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$138.22

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 97.5¢

+39% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,256

Combined PnL+$190.8

Up3 traders

Total Value$182.17

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$52.58

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 63.7¢	$390.47	$541.86	+$151.39	56% 16006-12645 (28651)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 84.8¢	$190.87	$221.63	+$30.75	58% 3206-2304 (5510)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 60¢	$158.87	$201.78	+$42.91	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 26¢	$199.69	$140.34	-$59.34	30% 12233-28187 (40420)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 73.8¢	$93.59	$79.38	-$14.21	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 38.5¢	$28.81	$35.55	+$6.74	50% 8428-8461 (16889)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$38.29	$33.51	-$4.78	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 88¢	$36.72	$26.18	-$10.54	58% 63423-46617 (110040)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 82.8¢	$27.32	$25.25	-$2.07	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 89.3¢	$22.68	$19.43	-$3.25	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 84.9¢	$21.24	$19.13	-$2.11	74% 105140-37106 (142246)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 65.8¢	$14.76	$17.16	+$2.4	61% 98748-62704 (161452)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$16.31	$15.58	-$0.73	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 89¢	$12.14	$13.3	+$1.16	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 31.5¢	$6.25	$6.28	+$0.02	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$6.36	$6.25	-$0.11	52% 12386-11438 (23824)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$390.47

Value

$541.86

PnL

+$151.39

Record

56%

16006-12645 (28651)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$190.87

Value

$221.63

PnL

+$30.75

Record

58%

3206-2304 (5510)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$158.87

Value

$201.78

PnL

+$42.91

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$199.69

Value

$140.34

PnL

-$59.34

Record

30%

12233-28187 (40420)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$93.59

Value

$79.38

PnL

-$14.21

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$28.81

Value

$35.55

PnL

+$6.74

Record

50%

8428-8461 (16889)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$38.29

Value

$33.51

PnL

-$4.78

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$36.72

Value

$26.18

PnL

-$10.54

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$27.32

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$2.07

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$22.68

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$3.25

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$21.24

Value

$19.13

PnL

-$2.11

Record

74%

105140-37106 (142246)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$14.76

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$2.4

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$16.31

Value

$15.58

PnL

-$0.73

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$12.14

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$1.16

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$6.25

Value

$6.28

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

12386-11438 (23824)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.