Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 53¢ · $5K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$668.08

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 52.5¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,005

Combined PnL-$106.8

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,970

Combined PnL+$774.89

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$46.53	53% 3230-2902 (6132)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 45.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$38.72	50% 301-297 (598)
GohstCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$130.49	$681.45	+$543.71	49% 762-795 (1557)
AN anciano	Noavg 57.2¢	$535.95	$477.95	-$58	54% 1460-1226 (2686)
Anjun	Noavg 70.9¢	$290.33	$246.94	-$43.39	55% 5185-4273 (9458)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 11.6¢	$46.2	$217.16	+$170.96	19% 2880-12257 (15137)
donube	Noavg 72¢	$194.95	$140.8	-$54.15	61% 875-556 (1431)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 51.1¢	$916.27	$117.48	+$96.76	34% 19212-36836 (56048)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.1¢	$74.8	$77.63	-$6.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.2¢	$33.22	$39.85	+$103.46
Haradwaith	Noavg 55.8¢	$266.53	$75.16	-$2.42	40% 6535-9791 (16326)
NE NewshoundCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$22	$47	+$21.5	55% 790-656 (1446)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 52¢	$15.05	$18.49	+$3.44	56% 18822-14981 (33803)
crypto-basenji<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$12.93	$14.12	+$1.19	38% 188-306 (494)

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,582.01

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$46.53

Record

53%

3230-2902 (6132)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,380.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$38.72

Record

50%

301-297 (598)

GohstCTR

Yes

Invested

$130.49

Value

$681.45

PnL

+$543.71

Record

49%

762-795 (1557)

anciano

Invested

$535.95

Value

$477.95

PnL

-$58

Record

54%

1460-1226 (2686)

Anjun

Invested

$290.33

Value

$246.94

PnL

-$43.39

Record

55%

5185-4273 (9458)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$46.2

Value

$217.16

PnL

+$170.96

Record

19%

2880-12257 (15137)

donube

Invested

$194.95

Value

$140.8

PnL

-$54.15

Record

61%

875-556 (1431)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$916.27

Value

$117.48

PnL

+$96.76

Record

34%

19212-36836 (56048)

Both legs:

No$74.851.1¢-$6.71

Yes$33.2239.2¢+$103.46

Haradwaith

Invested

$266.53

Value

$75.16

PnL

-$2.42

Record

40%

6535-9791 (16326)

NewshoundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$47

PnL

+$21.5

Record

55%

790-656 (1446)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$15.05

Value

$18.49

PnL

+$3.44

Record

56%

18822-14981 (33803)

crypto-basenji<$100

Invested

$12.93

Value

$14.12

PnL

+$1.19

Record

38%

188-306 (494)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.5%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$83.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

183.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.