Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 59¢ · $882 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$881.94
$249.72
34.9¢ → 59¢
+69% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
1245h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletin | Yesavg 33.7¢ | $204.89 | $346.58 | +$141.69 | 69% 981-443 (1424) |
 ScottyNooo | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $118.81 | $249 | +$138.93 | 50% 1532-1505 (3037) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 50.8¢ | $285.15 | $168.62 | -$36.19 | 36% 15176-27300 (42476) |
 aenews2<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $78.65 | $82.94 | +$4.29 | 60% 1769-1170 (2939) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Yesavg 56.3¢ | $33.8 | $34.8 | +$1 | 41% 11-16 (27) |
bernardbulletinInvested
$204.89
Value
$346.58
PnL
+$141.69
Record
69%
981-443 (1424)
ScottyNoooInvested
$118.81
Value
$249
PnL
+$138.93
Record
50%
1532-1505 (3037)
Invested
$285.15
Value
$168.62
PnL
-$36.19
Record
36%
15176-27300 (42476)
aenews2<$100Invested
$78.65
Value
$82.94
PnL
+$4.29
Record
60%
1769-1170 (2939)
Invested
$33.8
Value
$34.8
PnL
+$1
Record
41%
11-16 (27)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.