Will Chris Van Hollen be the next Senate Majority Leader?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$449.49

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 94.8¢

+11% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,285

Combined PnL+$546.58

Yes3 traders

Total Value$177.35

Total Shares3,321

Combined PnL-$97.09

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 89.2¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$102.91	44% 540-674 (1214)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 91.3¢	$592.82	$532.54	+$26.37	34% 19319-36895 (56214)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 88.8¢	$390.37	$398.23	+$13.86	56% 18829-14990 (33819)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 87.8¢	$351	$372.59	+$19.2	56% 16368-13116 (29484)
bernardbulletin	Noavg 93.6¢	$334.79	$339.13	+$4.33	70% 1184-499 (1683)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 3¢	$11.86	$235.3	+$329.09	53% 4530-4033 (8563)
Donny.T	Noavg 90¢	$80.1	$186.3	+$8	72% 511-198 (709)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$272.06	$162.01	-$110.05	51% 311-301 (612)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 88.9¢	$124.41	$130.41	+$5.99	53% 23719-20885 (44604)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 88¢	$109.74	$110.33	+$6.59	53% 8594-7671 (16265)
balthazar	Noavg 67.6¢	$74.42	$102.52	+$28.1	52% 30969-28992 (59961)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$72.89	$73.94	+$1.05	31% 3266-7124 (10390)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$37.44	$21.66	+$0.41	27% 598-1657 (2255)
Lucerys	Noavg 91.2¢	$263.57	$18.86	+$0.66	72% 13903-5480 (19383)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.86	$8.42	+$7.57	39% 10163-15762 (25925)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.52	$6.92	+$5.39	21% 42-156 (198)

anoin123

Invested

$2,315.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$102.91

Record

44%

540-674 (1214)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$592.82

Value

$532.54

PnL

+$26.37

Record

34%

19319-36895 (56214)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$390.37

Value

$398.23

PnL

+$13.86

Record

56%

18829-14990 (33819)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$351

Value

$372.59

PnL

+$19.2

Record

56%

16368-13116 (29484)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$334.79

Value

$339.13

PnL

+$4.33

Record

70%

1184-499 (1683)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$11.86

Value

$235.3

PnL

+$329.09

Record

53%

4530-4033 (8563)

Donny.T

Invested

$80.1

Value

$186.3

PnL

+$8

Record

72%

511-198 (709)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$272.06

Value

$162.01

PnL

-$110.05

Record

51%

311-301 (612)

cigarettes

Invested

$124.41

Value

$130.41

PnL

+$5.99

Record

53%

23719-20885 (44604)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$109.74

Value

$110.33

PnL

+$6.59

Record

53%

8594-7671 (16265)

balthazar

Invested

$74.42

Value

$102.52

PnL

+$28.1

Record

52%

30969-28992 (59961)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$72.89

Value

$73.94

PnL

+$1.05

Record

31%

3266-7124 (10390)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$37.44

Value

$21.66

PnL

+$0.41

Record

27%

598-1657 (2255)

Lucerys

Invested

$263.57

Value

$18.86

PnL

+$0.66

Record

72%

13903-5480 (19383)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$7.57

Record

39%

10163-15762 (25925)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$6.92

PnL

+$5.39

Record

21%

42-156 (198)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.