PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled marketno settled market50% (214–217, n=431)81% (1223–295, n=1518)
Consensus PnL——$91K$127K
Tracked asPM monthly #290was PM monthly #975PM monthly #873was PM monthly #799
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position50% (1 of 2 open)44% (4 of 9 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • Soccer +18 pts n=1284, ROI +10%
  • F1 +20 pts n=26, ROI +13%
  • NFL +13 pts n=36, ROI +3%
Weakest topic———NBA −2 pts, n=70
Settled positions, side won74% of 23 at avg 54¢, ROI +19%52% of 65 at avg 27¢, ROI +5%63% of 429 at avg 46¢, ROI +17%87% of 1457 at avg 70¢, ROI +10%
Entries under 30¢30% (won 43% of 7)57% (won 41% of 37)41% (won 29% of 177)11% (won 45% of 155)
Entries 30–50¢17% (won 75% of 4)32% (won 57% of 21)14% (won 72% of 58)11% (won 72% of 159)
Entries 50–70¢9% (won 50% of 2)8% (won 100% of 5)16% (won 84% of 67)16% (won 89% of 232)
Entries 70¢ and up43% (won 100% of 10)3% (won 100% of 2)30% (won 94% of 127)63% (won 97% of 911)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.