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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
Add:wr0ngw4yb3tt0rGoalLineGhost0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-17663175411880xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592NiNo999BreakTheBank
| sumolive | flow-trader-at-optiver | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 59% (505–349, n=854) | 49% (7116–7479, n=14595) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $27K | $13.3M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #269 | Hand-picked | Hand-picked |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 2 open) | 71% (17 of 24 open) | 51% (83 of 163 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
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|
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 91% of 3828 at avg 87¢, ROI +3% | 93% of 19633 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 8% (won 22% of 292) | 10% (won 52% of 2020) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 3% (won 65% of 122) | 22% (won 93% of 4355) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 4% (won 80% of 171) | 37% (won 99% of 7260) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 85% (won 99% of 3243) | 31% (won 100% of 5998) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.