PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market46% (122–141, n=263)57% (3347–2538, n=5885)92% (126–11, n=137)
Consensus PnL—$18.8M$194K$50K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #977was PM monthly #715PM monthly #114was PM monthly #993
Sides with the consensus0% (0 of 1 open)no open consensus position67% (2 of 3 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • Esports +39 pts n=11, ROI +36%
  • Soccer +35 pts n=13, ROI +49%
  • MLB +27 pts n=17, ROI −3%
  • NHL +5 pts n=186, ROI +6%
Weakest topic—College Basketball −12 pts, n=163——
Settled positions, side won79% of 76 at avg 53¢, ROI +24%50% of 1273 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%100% of 3066 at avg 48¢, ROI +48%98% of 111 at avg 50¢, ROI +42%
Entries under 30¢9% (won 57% of 7)0% (won 0% of 5)7% (won 100% of 226)6% (won 100% of 7)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 80% of 20)42% (won 47% of 535)55% (won 100% of 1675)41% (won 96% of 46)
Entries 50–70¢49% (won 76% of 37)57% (won 51% of 729)32% (won 100% of 967)42% (won 100% of 47)
Entries 70¢ and up16% (won 100% of 12)0% (won 100% of 4)6% (won 99% of 198)10% (won 100% of 11)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.