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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| moonlight453 | ololololololololo | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 49% (21–22, n=43) | 45% (484–601, n=1085) | 48% (12121–12955, n=25076) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $217K | $9.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #808 | was PM monthly #991 | PM monthly #1 | Hand-picked |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 67% (6 of 9 open) | 75% (27 of 36 open) | 50% (20 of 40 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 1 at avg 65¢, ROI +35% | 96% of 26 at avg 59¢, ROI +21% | 98% of 494 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 23702 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 0% | 12% (won 67% of 3) | 11% (won 87% of 52) | 10% (won 56% of 2452) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 27% (won 100% of 7) | 34% (won 98% of 169) | 22% (won 94% of 5319) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 100% (won 100% of 1) | 23% (won 100% of 6) | 34% (won 99% of 170) | 36% (won 99% of 8623) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 0% | 38% (won 100% of 10) | 21% (won 100% of 103) | 31% (won 100% of 7308) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | moonlight453 | ololololololololo | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Nuggets | — | — | Nuggets $317K | Warriors $1.2K |