Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (38%) · Warriors at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Nuggets50¢Warriors50¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 38%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$39.25

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 50.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets50%

Warriors51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,858

Combined PnL+$51.05

Nuggets5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,267

Combined PnL-$11.8

Warriors — 38%Nuggets — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (5 on Warriors) disagree here.

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Warriorsavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$41.9	63% 5793-3427 (9220)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$500	$490	-$10	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Nuggetsavg 49¢	$490	$490	+$0	53% 5196-4520 (9716)
KK kkpay19888	Warriorsavg 48¢	$221.28	$225.89	+$4.61	53% 501-436 (937)
RollAwayTheDew	Warriorsavg 49¢	$148.17	$152.7	+$4.54	52% 267-243 (510)
AS astapzippoCTR	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$100	$99	-$1	56% 2045-1587 (3632)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 51¢	$39.83	$39.83	-$0.8	57% 24239-18661 (42900)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 49¢	$9.45	$9.45	+$0	50% 1083-1075 (2158)

Forecastication2

Warriors

Invested

$1,026.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$41.9

Record

63%

5793-3427 (9220)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$490

Value

$490

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5196-4520 (9716)

kkpay19888

Warriors

Invested

$221.28

Value

$225.89

PnL

+$4.61

Record

53%

501-436 (937)

RollAwayTheDew

Warriors

Invested

$148.17

Value

$152.7

PnL

+$4.54

Record

52%

267-243 (510)

astapzippoCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$100

Value

$99

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

2045-1587 (3632)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$39.83

Value

$39.83

PnL

-$0.8

Record

57%

24239-18661 (42900)

mooseborzoiiCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1083-1075 (2158)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (5 on Warriors) disagree here.

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.