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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
joseph00677Malfunction.ndb1
Record (consensus markets)53% (10–9, n=19)98% (11412–287, n=11699)66% (872–458, n=1330)
Consensus PnL$5.6M$624K$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #285PM monthly #25
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position100% (1 of 1 open)73% (95 of 130 open)
Strongest topics
Weakest topic—Geopolitics −6 pts, n=15NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%96% of 10966 at avg 96¢, ROI 0%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢12% (won 0% of 2)2% (won 19% of 225)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢6% (won 0% of 1)2% (won 50% of 204)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢65% (won 73% of 11)2% (won 58% of 170)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up18% (won 67% of 3)95% (won 99% of 10367)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketjoseph00677Malfunction.ndb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $95KNo $1.5M