Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
haveanedge.xyzkeeptheblueflagflyinghighnigiri99
Record (consensus markets)no settled market48% (500–537, n=1037)55% (392–321, n=713)
Consensus PnL$0$457K$426K
Tracked asPM monthly #722PM monthly #21PM monthly #103
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position76% (13 of 17 open)46% (31 of 68 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NHL +21 pts n=68, ROI +6%
  • NBA +14 pts n=284, ROI +13%
  • Soccer +18 pts n=63, ROI +28%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won—100% of 329 at avg 51¢, ROI +45%69% of 567 at avg 53¢, ROI +6%
Entries under 30¢—6% (won 100% of 19)14% (won 37% of 79)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 100% of 120)24% (won 59% of 138)
Entries 50–70¢—50% (won 100% of 166)43% (won 72% of 243)
Entries 70¢ and up—7% (won 100% of 24)19% (won 98% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Markethaveanedge.xyzkeeptheblueflagflyinghighnigiri99
Kraken vs. Hurricanes
opposite sides · consensus Hurricanes
—Hurricanes $34KKraken $54
Nebraska vs. Rutgers: O/U 51.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Over $3.4KUnder $200