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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
LaminionYamalsurfandturf0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188ndb1
Record (consensus markets)44% (1823–2294, n=4117)52% (273–252, n=525)46% (131–154, n=285)65% (862–456, n=1318)
Consensus PnL$16K-$77K-$6.6M$4.1M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #946was PM monthly #326was PM monthly #715PM monthly #69
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position0% (0 of 1 open)no open consensus position68% (48 of 71 open)
Strongest topics
  • MMA +4 pts n=148, ROI +10%
  • NBA +4 pts n=76, ROI +12%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topicSoccer −1 pts, n=556NFL −11 pts, n=58College Basketball −12 pts, n=174NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won44% of 4195 at avg 44¢, ROI 0%53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢22% (won 20% of 933)20% (won 12% of 109)0% (won 17% of 6)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢39% (won 41% of 1646)21% (won 46% of 114)42% (won 46% of 565)20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢33% (won 58% of 1379)33% (won 60% of 176)57% (won 51% of 766)24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 81% of 237)26% (won 82% of 137)0% (won 100% of 4)43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.