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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | ndb1 | RN1 | txwd9991 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (549–663, n=1212) | 65% (876–462, n=1338) | 47% (13283–14790, n=28073) | 90% (136–15, n=151) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.2M | $4.2M | $14.8M | -$18K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #23 + pinned | PM monthly #993 |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (26 of 39 open) | 79% (19 of 24 open) | 45% (15 of 33 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 96% of 144 at avg 49¢, ROI +48% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) | 63% (won 95% of 91) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) | 36% (won 98% of 52) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) | 1% (won 100% of 1) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.