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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | machbut | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (572–710, n=1282) | 61% (23–15, n=38) | 63% (989–572, n=1561) | 48% (14163–15644, n=29807) |
| Consensus PnL | $7.9M | $31K | $3.2M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #851 | PM monthly #90 | PM monthly #30 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 85% (28 of 33 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 69% (59 of 86 open) | 54% (28 of 52 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 582 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 74% of 34 at avg 72¢, ROI +3% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25975 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 82% of 60) | 9% (won 0% of 3) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 10% (won 57% of 2593) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 204) | 15% (won 40% of 5) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 22% (won 94% of 5682) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 202) | 18% (won 67% of 6) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 35% (won 99% of 9181) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 116) | 59% (won 95% of 20) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 33% (won 100% of 8519) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | machbut | ndb1 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | — | Yes $58K | Yes $1.0M | — |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus No | No $407K | — | No $335K | — |