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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBanklossxndb1omnibus-076daa
Record (consensus markets)45% (546–663, n=1209)68% (263–123, n=386)65% (870–459, n=1329)50% (14740–14843, n=29583)
Consensus PnL$11.2M$10K$4.2M$3.0M
Tracked asPM monthly #2was PM monthly #959PM monthly #11PM monthly #62
Sides with the consensus70% (39 of 56 open)0% (0 of 1 open)71% (25 of 35 open)63% (106 of 168 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
  • Crypto +3 pts n=35, ROI −11%
Weakest topic—Esports −1 pts, n=58NFL −10 pts, n=132—
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%55% of 93 at avg 54¢, ROI +4%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%92% of 11470 at avg 61¢, ROI +32%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)14% (won 23% of 13)13% (won 16% of 160)8% (won 60% of 899)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)30% (won 39% of 28)20% (won 40% of 253)21% (won 87% of 2444)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)32% (won 60% of 30)24% (won 57% of 310)39% (won 95% of 4418)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)24% (won 86% of 22)43% (won 93% of 544)32% (won 99% of 3709)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

15 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBanklossxndb1omnibus-076daa
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $3.1K—No $2.0MYes $76
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $7.5K—Yes $820KYes $5
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $56K—No $242KYes $53
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $175K—No $50Yes $2.5K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $241K—Yes $503KYes $122
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $56—No $1.5M—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $327K—Yes $1.4K—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $245K—Yes $56—
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $7.6K——Yes $2.1K
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $795——Yes $149
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $378K——Yes $81K
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $22K——Yes $71K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $50K——Yes $160
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $21K——Yes $113
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $15K——Yes $215
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $3.4K—No $7.5K—
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $8.8K——Yes $881
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)
same side · consensus B8
—Natus Vincere $1.5K—Natus Vincere $6.0K
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5.8K——Yes $155
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
same side · consensus No
Yes $3.1K——Yes $3
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2.6K——Yes $69
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1.0K——Yes $59
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus No
Yes $28——Yes $41
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $2—No $35—