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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankjoseph00677RN1whosay
Record (consensus markets)45% (547–663, n=1210)53% (10–9, n=19)47% (14348–15981, n=30329)58% (1113–799, n=1912)
Consensus PnL$11.0M$5.6M$14.8M-$41K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #2PM monthly #18 + pinnedPM monthly #635
Sides with the consensus68% (77 of 114 open)no open consensus position54% (36 of 67 open)29% (2 of 7 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———Tennis −3 pts, n=691
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%58% of 2081 at avg 59¢, ROI −1%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)12% (won 0% of 2)10% (won 57% of 2606)11% (won 16% of 239)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)6% (won 0% of 1)22% (won 94% of 5665)26% (won 35% of 547)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)65% (won 73% of 11)36% (won 99% of 9185)28% (won 58% of 583)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)18% (won 67% of 3)32% (won 100% of 8345)34% (won 88% of 712)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankjoseph00677RN1whosay
Rolex Paris Masters: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur Gea
opposite sides · consensus Jan-Lennard Struff
——Arthur Gea $13KJan-Lennard Struff $2.1K