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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | Gdub | joseph00677 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (571–700, n=1271) | 75% (549–184, n=733) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 65% (892–472, n=1364) |
| Consensus PnL | $9.4M | $13K | $5.6M | $4.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #999 | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #99 |
| Sides with the consensus | 52% (12 of 23 open) | 82% (9 of 11 open) | no open consensus position | 78% (39 of 50 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | Elections −1 pts, n=146 | — | NFL −9 pts, n=139 |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 77% of 779 at avg 74¢, ROI +1% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 12% (won 15% of 95) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 13% (won 15% of 168) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 8% (won 41% of 59) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 20% (won 39% of 256) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 9% (won 67% of 70) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 24% (won 58% of 314) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 71% (won 93% of 555) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 43% (won 93% of 550) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | Gdub | joseph00677 | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | No $182K | Yes $7.0K | — | — |