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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Aurelius7 | BreakTheBank | primm | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 47% (267–299, n=566) | 45% (573–710, n=1283) | 50% (1105–1117, n=2222) | 48% (14109–15586, n=29695) |
| Consensus PnL | -$6.7K | $7.9M | $3.6M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #950 | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #46 | PM monthly #28 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 64% (7 of 11 open) | 83% (25 of 30 open) | no open consensus position | 65% (100 of 155 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Elections −2 pts, n=60 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 66% of 399 at avg 49¢, ROI +8% | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 99% of 1013 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 94% of 25975 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 16% of 64) | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 5% (won 94% of 51) | 10% (won 57% of 2593) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 39% of 64) | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 41% (won 99% of 412) | 22% (won 94% of 5682) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 61% (won 83% of 245) | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 50% (won 99% of 503) | 35% (won 99% of 9181) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 7% (won 96% of 26) | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 5% (won 100% of 47) | 33% (won 100% of 8519) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Aurelius7 | BreakTheBank | primm | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus No | Yes $7 | Yes $2 | — | — |