PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
AnonymousUsernameRN1BreakTheBankbeachboy4
Record (consensus markets)45% (579–720, n=1299)48% (12314–13195, n=25509)45% (516–628, n=1144)68% (43–20, n=63)
Consensus PnL-$15K$13.4M$10.6M$5.8M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #967PM monthly #25 + pinnedPM monthly #1was PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensus79% (85 of 108 open)74% (26 of 35 open)63% (26 of 41 open)100% (2 of 2 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=121, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=72, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=276, ROI +38%
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
Weakest topic———NBA −6 pts, n=92
Settled positions, side won—94% of 24256 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%97% of 515 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 56% of 2507)10% (won 85% of 53)3% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢—22% (won 94% of 5408)35% (won 98% of 181)29% (won 56% of 62)
Entries 50–70¢—36% (won 99% of 8790)34% (won 99% of 176)54% (won 51% of 115)
Entries 70¢ and up—31% (won 100% of 7551)20% (won 100% of 105)14% (won 86% of 29)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketAnonymousUsernameRN1BreakTheBankbeachboy4
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $18K—Yes $37K—
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $241—No $38K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4.7K—Yes $286K—
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $19K—Yes $70K—
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $1.3K—Yes $26K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $47—Yes $18K—
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $13K—Yes $4.8K—
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $738——Yes $3.7K
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3.5K——Yes $72
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
same side · consensus No
Yes $972—Yes $1.5K—