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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBanklopezmartin
Record (consensus markets)no settled market58% (4520–3295, n=7815)45% (573–710, n=1283)65% (11–6, n=17)
Consensus PnL—$7.8M$7.9M$47K
Tracked as—PM monthly #67PM monthly #3PM monthly #556
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position50% (3 of 6 open)62% (18 of 29 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topic—NHL −1 pts, n=134——
Settled positions, side won—59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%59% of 17 at avg 50¢, ROI +40%
Entries under 30¢—17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)24% (won 25% of 4)
Entries 30–50¢—24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)18% (won 33% of 3)
Entries 50–70¢—29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)35% (won 67% of 6)
Entries 70¢ and up—30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)24% (won 100% of 4)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo000x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBanklopezmartin
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $1.4KYes $78K—