Consensus PnL $63K · win rate 40% (435–661, n=1096) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$62.9K
Record
435W / 661L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 1096 settled
Batting Avg
63.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1498
Source
PM monthly #1000
Record (90 d)
128/417 · 31%
Trades
224
Markets
2,012
Volume
$1.8M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $2.8K · now 1¢with the consensus (100% of 17)
- Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on November 30?Yes $955 · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
Specialties
857 settled consensus markets · held side won 41% at an average entry of 40¢- MLB
+4 pts
side won 41% of 180 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +14%
- Soccer
+7 pts
side won 55% of 22 · avg entry 48¢
ROI −2%
- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 38% of 16 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +17%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 33% of 55 at an average 39¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 51%(won 5% of 433)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 42% of 55)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 58% of 102)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 92% of 267)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.