Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on November 30?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 30

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$169.2

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 95.5¢

+18% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,784

Combined PnL+$303.16

No4 traders

Total Value$60.88

Total Shares761

Combined PnL-$133.96

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VO Votei14Voude22	Yesavg 77.7¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$306.84	77% 355-107 (462)
andy29	Yesavg 90.1¢	$901.14	$897.45	-$3.68	45% 845-1022 (1867)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$88.44	$31.32	-$62.65	23% 779-2544 (3323)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 29.2¢	$84.62	$18.44	-$36.43	34% 19139-36791 (55930)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$31.5	$5.6	-$27.3	17% 1311-6533 (7844)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$13.11	$5.52	-$7.59	16% 373-1948 (2321)

Votei14Voude22

Yes

Invested

$2,162.73

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$306.84

Record

77%

355-107 (462)

andy29

Yes

Invested

$901.14

Value

$897.45

PnL

-$3.68

Record

45%

845-1022 (1867)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$88.44

Value

$31.32

PnL

-$62.65

Record

23%

779-2544 (3323)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$84.62

Value

$18.44

PnL

-$36.43

Record

34%

19139-36791 (55930)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$27.3

Record

17%

1311-6533 (7844)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$13.11

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$7.59

Record

16%

373-1948 (2321)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.