Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 4.7¢ · $999 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$999.4
-$49.33
5.1¢ → 4.7¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
373h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 98¢ | $353.78 | $348.73 | -$6.32 | 66% 786-407 (1193) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $503.27 | $322 | -$181.27 | 45% 2314-2839 (5153) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $11.14 | $168.16 | +$60.49 | — |
NO notgoodluckCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $20.12 | $67.06 | +$32.97 | 62% 213-133 (346) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $10.8 | $66.66 | +$43.09 | 52% 1668-1539 (3207) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $1.32 | $26.61 | +$1.7 | 72% 6934-2737 (9671) |
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$353.78
Value
$348.73
PnL
-$6.32
Record
66%
786-407 (1193)
Invested
$503.27
Value
$322
PnL
-$181.27
Record
45%
2314-2839 (5153)
Invested
$11.14
Value
$168.16
PnL
+$60.49
Record
—
Invested
$20.12
Value
$67.06
PnL
+$32.97
Record
62%
213-133 (346)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$66.66
PnL
+$43.09
Record
52%
1668-1539 (3207)
Invested
$1.32
Value
$26.61
PnL
+$1.7
Record
72%
6934-2737 (9671)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.