Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 81¢ · $713 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$712.72
$11.32
86.8¢ → 81¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 87.4¢ | $626.8 | $473.81 | -$12.3 | 22% 291-1049 (1340) |
 twinnaCTR | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $151.79 | $139.99 | -$11.79 | 50% 91-90 (181) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $18.99 | $54.45 | +$35.46 | 60% 3306-2215 (5521) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $41 | $40.5 | -$0.5 | 18% 522-2344 (2866) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.45 | $3.97 | +$0.45 | 67% 4141-2004 (6145) |
IstarothInvested
$626.8
Value
$473.81
PnL
-$12.3
Record
22%
291-1049 (1340)
twinnaCTRInvested
$151.79
Value
$139.99
PnL
-$11.79
Record
50%
91-90 (181)
Invested
$18.99
Value
$54.45
PnL
+$35.46
Record
60%
3306-2215 (5521)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$41
Value
$40.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
18%
522-2344 (2866)
Car<$100Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.97
PnL
+$0.45
Record
67%
4141-2004 (6145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.