Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 44¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 4

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$17.3K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

25.7¢ → 43.5¢

+69% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares50,698

Combined PnL+$3.9K

No5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,003

Combined PnL-$918.18

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

178h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$11.2K	$14.9K	+$3.8K	60% 1740-1151 (2891)
Istaroth	Noavg 74¢	$7.4K	$1.7K	-$898.31	55% 264-213 (477)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$120	$260	+$110	40% 691-1016 (1707)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 83¢	$177.01	$150.78	-$26.22	36% 12837-22501 (35338)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 85¢	$120.9	$99.57	-$9.25	64% 2141-1207 (3348)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 66¢	$67.98	$72.1	+$4.12	63% 2580-1546 (4126)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 56¢	$45.92	$57.4	+$11.48	49% 2052-2172 (4224)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$11,157.12

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

60%

1740-1151 (2891)

Istaroth

Invested

$7,400

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$898.31

Record

55%

264-213 (477)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$260

PnL

+$110

Record

40%

691-1016 (1707)

AJSV

Invested

$177.01

Value

$150.78

PnL

-$26.22

Record

36%

12837-22501 (35338)

sbimbg

Invested

$120.9

Value

$99.57

PnL

-$9.25

Record

64%

2141-1207 (3348)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$67.98

Value

$72.1

PnL

+$4.12

Record

63%

2580-1546 (4126)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$45.92

Value

$57.4

PnL

+$11.48

Record

49%

2052-2172 (4224)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

178h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.5%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$119.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

219.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.