Consensus PnL -$11K · win rate 91% (840–88, n=928) · PM monthly #747 · holds 31 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-10.8K
Record
840W / 88L
Win Rate
91.0%
of 928 settled
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#238
Source
PM monthly #747
Record (90 d)
295/346 · 85%
Trades
0
Markets
1,035
Volume
$603.1K
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Top consensus positions
31 in listed consensus markets · 30 of 31 on the consensus side (97%)- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No $24K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?No $14K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?No $11K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $9.8K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?No $7.3K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?No $4.3K · now 96¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?No $4.3K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No $3.8K · now 97¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (82% of 17)
Specialties
825 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 91¢- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 57% of 76 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 58% of 31 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +2%
- Mentions
+3 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 97¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 98% of 570 at an average 98¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 13% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 44% of 39)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 63% of 48)
- 70¢ and up: 86%(won 99% of 708)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.