Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 31
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Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$5.1K
$204.2
94.3¢ → 98.3¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 esports095 | Noavg 97¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$35.61 | 58% 649-466 (1115) |
JA JanAMEX | Noavg 91.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$145.97 | 88% 321-44 (365) |
PH phdcapital | Noavg 92¢ | $330.35 | $352.8 | +$22.62 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.