Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $16K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$16.0K
$276.47
96.9¢ → 98.3¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
4938h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Alegrandebig | Noavg 97.2¢ | $710.79 | $14.0K | +$125.04 | 90% 1078-116 (1194) |
LA lava-lava | No | $985.64 | $985.64 | +$82.76 | 42% 551-752 (1303) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $915 | $982.5 | +$67.5 | 89% 2282-292 (2574) |
 tomatosauce2<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $25.92 | $27.09 | +$1.17 | 80% 1052-267 (1319) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $9.83 | $9.83 | -$0.01 | 70% 1063-466 (1529) |
Invested
$710.79
Value
$14.0K
PnL
+$125.04
Record
90%
1078-116 (1194)
Invested
$985.64
Value
$985.64
PnL
+$82.76
Record
42%
551-752 (1303)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$915
Value
$982.5
PnL
+$67.5
Record
89%
2282-292 (2574)
tomatosauce2<$100Invested
$25.92
Value
$27.09
PnL
+$1.17
Record
80%
1052-267 (1319)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$9.83
Value
$9.83
PnL
-$0.01
Record
70%
1063-466 (1529)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.