Consensus PnL $6.6K · win rate 74% (633–221, n=854) · PM monthly #914 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$6.6K
Record
633W / 221L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 854 settled
Batting Avg
54.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#426
Source
PM monthly #914
Record (90 d)
108/124 · 87%
Trades
674
Markets
1,131
Volume
$186.5K
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Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 15 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $9.7K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (83% of 111)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $2.0K · now 79¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (64% of 121)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $653 · now 80¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes $292 · now 81¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (60% of 50)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $205 · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (71% of 140)
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes $189 · now 65¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $155 · now 2¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?No $148 · now 99¢with the consensus (56% of 25)
Specialties
454 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 68¢- Geopolitics
+17 pts
side won 93% of 30 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +4%
- Elections
+6 pts
side won 82% of 104 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +10%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 67% of 108 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 15% of 92)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 47% of 36)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 88% of 32)
- 70¢ and up: 65%(won 95% of 294)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.