Consensus PnL $8.3K · win rate 74% (628–218, n=846) · PM monthly #906 · holds 87 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.3K
Record
628W / 218L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 846 settled
Batting Avg
54.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#421
Source
PM monthly #906
Record (90 d)
102/118 · 86%
Trades
674
Markets
1,132
Volume
$184.3K
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Top consensus positions
87 in listed consensus markets · 56 of 87 on the consensus side (64%)- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $9.4K · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (79% of 127)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $1.8K · now 70¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (62% of 138)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?Yes $896 · now 99¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (52% of 44)
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Yes $715 · now 53¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?Yes $698 · now 100¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (50% of 34)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $694 · now 71¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?No $596 · now 99¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (71% of 35)
- Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Yes $576 · now 34¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (58% of 20)
Specialties
441 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 68¢- Geopolitics
+17 pts
side won 93% of 30 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +4%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 67% of 108 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +5%
- Elections
+4 pts
side won 80% of 97 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 15% of 92)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 44% of 34)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 87% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 95% of 284)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.