Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 38¢ · $693 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$692.98
$59.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $1.0K | $526.57 | +$45.1 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $339.86 | $375.84 | -$47.12 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 28.7¢ | $166.62 | $150.73 | +$92.23 | |
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 9.4¢ | $37.29 | $102.93 | +$65.64 | 61% 20530-12988 (33518) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100 | Yesavg 68.4¢ | $50.93 | $49.88 | +$0.82 | 50% 390-393 (783) |
TT tttt123CTR<$100 | Noavg 44.1¢ | $14.9 | $7.99 | -$6.91 | 72% 1532-584 (2116) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $5.03 | $5.45 | +$0.42 | 43% 132-177 (309) |
Invested
$1,026.31
Value
$526.57
PnL
+$45.1
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
Both legs:
balthazarCTRInvested
$37.29
Value
$102.93
PnL
+$65.64
Record
61%
20530-12988 (33518)
Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100Invested
$50.93
Value
$49.88
PnL
+$0.82
Record
50%
390-393 (783)
Invested
$14.9
Value
$7.99
PnL
-$6.91
Record
72%
1532-584 (2116)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$5.45
PnL
+$0.42
Record
43%
132-177 (309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.