Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Yes29¢No71¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$354.95

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 70.9¢

-17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,037

Combined PnL-$354.54

Yes9 traders

Total Value$852.76

Total Shares2,830

Combined PnL+$709.49

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

355h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
E4 e46m3	Noavg 84¢	$1.2K	$979.6	-$181.58	73% 13784-5222 (19006)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 88¢	$445.95	$427.59	-$18.37	65% 260-142 (402)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$201.36	$278.68	+$147.07	46% 2751-3295 (6046)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 91.7¢	$261.58	$229.59	-$31.99	35% 18009-33702 (51711)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Noavg 62¢	$533.77	$207.61	+$52.18	53% 8154-7250 (15404)
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$128.69	$116.67	-$12.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.9¢	$26.7	$90.94	+$64.22
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 75.5¢	$187.5	$176.07	-$11.43	51% 3616-3481 (7097)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$67.93	$150.77	+$295.28	48% 7069-7748 (14817)
JE Jesetrading	No	$133.65	$133.65	-$39.68	71% 622-254 (876)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$97.43	$114.74	+$17.31	70% 168-72 (240)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93¢	$104.69	$108.88	+$4.19	77% 11979-3652 (15631)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameARB<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$75.82	$106.81	+$55	52% 234-213 (447)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$36.24	$74.61	+$45.87
└ No leg	Noavg 57.7¢	$23.07	$32.2	+$9.13
thanksforplayinCTR	Yesavg 11.2¢	$219.95	$101.73	+$77.15	56% 441-348 (789)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	No	$100.63	$100.63	-$59.69	49% 121-125 (246)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$194.86	$85.35	+$80.43	49% 1856-1954 (3810)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89¢	$88.98	$70.9	-$18.08	53% 22473-19696 (42169)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.2¢	$16.38	$45.32	+$28.94	51% 2385-2316 (4701)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	$41.97	$43.18	+$1.21	78% 12307-3545 (15852)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$3.98	$35.47	+$31.48	59% 617-423 (1040)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$5.52	$26.25	+$20.74	58% 19331-14228 (33559)
1B 0x1bc3...dc6eCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$3.37	$14.45	+$11.09	— 9-5 (14)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$3.73	$4.17	+$0.44	47% 2122-2412 (4534)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$3.65	$4.07	+$0.43	55% 4387-3591 (7978)

e46m3

Invested

$1,161.18

Value

$979.6

PnL

-$181.58

Record

73%

13784-5222 (19006)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$445.95

Value

$427.59

PnL

-$18.37

Record

65%

260-142 (402)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$201.36

Value

$278.68

PnL

+$147.07

Record

46%

2751-3295 (6046)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$261.58

Value

$229.59

PnL

-$31.99

Record

35%

18009-33702 (51711)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Invested

$533.77

Value

$207.61

PnL

+$52.18

Record

53%

8154-7250 (15404)

Both legs:

No$128.6962¢-$12.04

Yes$26.712.9¢+$64.22

haveagoodday

Invested

$187.5

Value

$176.07

PnL

-$11.43

Record

51%

3616-3481 (7097)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$67.93

Value

$150.77

PnL

+$295.28

Record

48%

7069-7748 (14817)

Jesetrading

Invested

$133.65

Value

$133.65

PnL

-$39.68

Record

71%

622-254 (876)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR

Yes

Invested

$97.43

Value

$114.74

PnL

+$17.31

Record

70%

168-72 (240)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$104.69

Value

$108.88

PnL

+$4.19

Record

77%

11979-3652 (15631)

TheWindKnowsmyNameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.82

Value

$106.81

PnL

+$55

Record

52%

234-213 (447)

Both legs:

Invested

$219.95

Value

$101.73

PnL

+$77.15

Record

56%

441-348 (789)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$100.63

Value

$100.63

PnL

-$59.69

Record

49%

121-125 (246)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$194.86

Value

$85.35

PnL

+$80.43

Record

49%

1856-1954 (3810)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$88.98

Value

$70.9

PnL

-$18.08

Record

53%

22473-19696 (42169)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.38

Value

$45.32

PnL

+$28.94

Record

51%

2385-2316 (4701)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$41.97

Value

$43.18

PnL

+$1.21

Record

78%

12307-3545 (15852)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.98

Value

$35.47

PnL

+$31.48

Record

59%

617-423 (1040)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.52

Value

$26.25

PnL

+$20.74

Record

58%

19331-14228 (33559)

0x1bc3...dc6eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.37

Value

$14.45

PnL

+$11.09

Record

—

9-5 (14)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.44

Record

47%

2122-2412 (4534)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$0.43

Record

55%

4387-3591 (7978)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

355h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.7%

70.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.