Consensus PnL $16K · win rate 82% (14–3, n=17) · PM monthly #704 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$15.7K
Record
14W / 3L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 17 settled
Batting Avg
55.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#316
Source
PM monthly #704
Record (90 d)
5/6 · 83%
Trades
335
Markets
43
Volume
$86.0K
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Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 16 on the consensus side (56%)- Will the Republican Party win the TX-27 House seat?Yes $6.6K · now 99¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (26% of 23)
- Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?Yes $6.0K · now 96¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (28% of 29)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.0K · now 82¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (78% of 47)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-27 House seat?No $1.9K · now 99¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (65% of 26)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-32 House seat?Yes $1.5K · now 95¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (21% of 29)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?Yes $1.0K · now 98¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (38% of 30)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat?No $940 · now 96¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (77% of 27)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?No $830 · now 32¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
17 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 77¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where soapbubbles's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 92% of 12)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.