Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 45¢ · $294 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$294.22
$37.33
38.8¢ → 45¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO DOLBAEB1CTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $146.48 | $148.11 | +$1.63 | 38% 40-65 (105) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $74.12 | $105.85 | +$31.73 | 40% 22-33 (55) |
AN anoin123<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $24.5 | $24.73 | +$0.23 | 47% 480-535 (1015) |
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $10 | $13.96 | +$3.81 | 58% 6038-4391 (10429) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $0.97 | $0.86 | -$0.1 | 43% 2789-3664 (6453) |
NO notgoodluckCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $0.67 | $0.71 | +$0.04 | 62% 213-133 (346) |
Invested
$146.48
Value
$148.11
PnL
+$1.63
Record
38%
40-65 (105)
Invested
$74.12
Value
$105.85
PnL
+$31.73
Record
40%
22-33 (55)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$24.73
PnL
+$0.23
Record
47%
480-535 (1015)
Invested
$10
Value
$13.96
PnL
+$3.81
Record
58%
6038-4391 (10429)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$0.1
Record
43%
2789-3664 (6453)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.71
PnL
+$0.04
Record
62%
213-133 (346)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.