Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 12¢ · $69 held · ends Nov 4

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$68.98

Combined PnL

$26.81

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$29.41

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$3.7

No7 traders

Total Value$39.58

Total Shares363

Combined PnL+$30.51

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 80.4¢	$178.53	$19.02	-$3.41	52% 2106-1946 (4052)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 11.7¢	$30.37	$11.3	+$17.53	35% 16978-31455 (48433)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$10.67	$10.38	-$0.29	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$10.7	$8.64	-$2.06	54% 3927-3407 (7334)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$6	$6.3	+$0.3	54% 6086-5288 (11374)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 10.3¢	$6.2	$6.3	+$0.1	49% 9109-9642 (18751)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 12.7¢	$13.45	$2.52	+$15.07	50% 1694-1680 (3374)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$2.76	$2.42	-$0.34	42% 10155-14076 (24231)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$2.2	$2.1	-$0.1	55% 26056-21461 (47517)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$178.53

Value

$19.02

PnL

-$3.41

Record

52%

2106-1946 (4052)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$30.37

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$17.53

Record

35%

16978-31455 (48433)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.67

Value

$10.38

PnL

-$0.29

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Invested

$10.7

Value

$8.64

PnL

-$2.06

Record

54%

3927-3407 (7334)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

6086-5288 (11374)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

9109-9642 (18751)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$13.45

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$15.07

Record

50%

1694-1680 (3374)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.34

Record

42%

10155-14076 (24231)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

26056-21461 (47517)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.5%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$643.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

743.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.