Will the Democratic Party win the TX-27 House seat?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$6.3K
$163.91
93.3¢ → 97.7¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $2.5K | $2.7K | +$207.16 | 61% 203-131 (334) |
AL alex20011 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$13.34 | 48% 3419-3695 (7114) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$12.57 | 31% 309-674 (983) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$13.63 | 30% 259-603 (862) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $11.11 | $7.4 | -$3.71 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
Invested
$2,526.95
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$207.16
Record
61%
203-131 (334)
Invested
$1,337.34
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$13.34
Record
48%
3419-3695 (7114)
Invested
$1,155.28
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$12.57
Record
31%
309-674 (983)
Invested
$1,061.72
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$13.63
Record
30%
259-603 (862)
Invested
$11.11
Value
$7.4
PnL
-$3.71
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.