Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$126.24

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 88.1¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,730

Combined PnL+$75.03

Yes8 traders

Total Value$200.81

Total Shares2,828

Combined PnL+$51.21

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thoodr	Noavg 95¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$77.5	96% 647-24 (671)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 91.2¢	$129.69	$126.15	-$3.54	51% 3503-3397 (6900)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 5.9¢	$52.77	$113.4	+$60.63	48% 6904-7549 (14453)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$47.15	$49.7	+$2.55	79% 11986-3185 (15171)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$48.03	$43.56	+$0.92	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$30.24	$28.76	-$1.48	53% 28737-25660 (54397)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$16.11	$22.6	+$6.49	61% 289-185 (474)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$25.87	$10.9	-$14.97	54% 391-327 (718)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$11.56	$5.17	-$3.06	56% 171-134 (305)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.12	$2.59	+$1.41	50% 6074-6177 (12251)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.85	$1.73	-$0.12	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$0.94	$0.85	-$0.1	53% 8015-7117 (15132)

thoodr

Invested

$2,375

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$77.5

Record

96%

647-24 (671)

haveagoodday

Invested

$129.69

Value

$126.15

PnL

-$3.54

Record

51%

3503-3397 (6900)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$52.77

Value

$113.4

PnL

+$60.63

Record

48%

6904-7549 (14453)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$47.15

Value

$49.7

PnL

+$2.55

Record

79%

11986-3185 (15171)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.03

Value

$43.56

PnL

+$0.92

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$30.24

Value

$28.76

PnL

-$1.48

Record

53%

28737-25660 (54397)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.11

Value

$22.6

PnL

+$6.49

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.87

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$14.97

Record

54%

391-327 (718)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.56

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$3.06

Record

56%

171-134 (305)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$1.41

Record

50%

6074-6177 (12251)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

8015-7117 (15132)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.