Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 55% (27–22, n=49) · PM monthly #543 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.0K
Record
27W / 22L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 49 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#842
Source
PM monthly #543
Record (90 d)
29/52 · 56%
Trades
407
Markets
64
Volume
$277.4K
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Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?No $21K · now 86¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (72% of 59)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $10K · now 92¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (57% of 75)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $6.1K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 WinnerSpirit $1.6K · now 45¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31?No $1.1K · now 56¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (56% of 35)
- Jensen Huang divorce by March 31, 2027?No $1.1K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (73% of 33)
- Will Rene Haas be the next CEO of NVIDIA?No $1.0K · now 77¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (60% of 35)
Specialties
24 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 54¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where MaoZeDonK's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 100% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 58%(won 100% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.