Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Spirit, while the market favors MOUZ (54%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (33%) · Spirit at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit
6
Spirit 33%
$4.3K
-$28.9
45¢ → 46.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MaoZeDonKCTR | Spiritavg 45¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$0 | 53% 28-25 (53) |
 DumplingBMF | MOUZavg 55¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$20 | 6% 8-119 (127) |
SU suntori | MOUZavg 55¢ | $407.61 | $396.49 | -$11.12 | 45% 2465-2964 (5429) |
NA NagastaBagambiCTR<$100 | Spiritavg 44¢ | $62 | $63.41 | +$1.41 | 5% 1-19 (20) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | MOUZavg 54.2¢ | $83.25 | $60.25 | +$1.29 | 52% 1634-1502 (3136) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | MOUZavg 55¢ | $26.4 | $25.92 | -$0.48 | 48% 3130-3418 (6548) |
MaoZeDonKCTRInvested
$2,656.28
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
28-25 (53)
DumplingBMFInvested
$1,099.99
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$20
Record
6%
8-119 (127)
Invested
$407.61
Value
$396.49
PnL
-$11.12
Record
45%
2465-2964 (5429)
Invested
$62
Value
$63.41
PnL
+$1.41
Record
5%
1-19 (20)
Invested
$83.25
Value
$60.25
PnL
+$1.29
Record
52%
1634-1502 (3136)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$25.92
PnL
-$0.48
Record
48%
3130-3418 (6548)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.