Will Rene Haas be the next CEO of NVIDIA?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 90¢ · $175 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$175.22
-$4.84
92¢ → 89.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $98.77 | $94.92 | -$3.85 | 53% 1614-1416 (3030) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $45.5 | $42.5 | -$3 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $22.8 | $26.3 | +$3.5 | 13% 28-182 (210) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $6.93 | $5.95 | -$0.98 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $3.3 | $3.15 | -$0.15 | 42% 13-18 (31) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $2.76 | $2.4 | -$0.36 | 26% 1244-3525 (4769) |
Invested
$98.77
Value
$94.92
PnL
-$3.85
Record
53%
1614-1416 (3030)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$42.5
PnL
-$3
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$22.8
Value
$26.3
PnL
+$3.5
Record
13%
28-182 (210)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$5.95
PnL
-$0.98
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$0.15
Record
42%
13-18 (31)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.36
Record
26%
1244-3525 (4769)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.