XRP Up or Down - November 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 100¢ · $24 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 80%
$24.33
-$5.84
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 5.8¢ | $0.97 | $8.31 | +$7.34 | 54% 305-265 (570) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $8.8 | $5 | -$3.8 | 59% 512-354 (866) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $8.6 | $5 | -$3.6 | 43% 233-309 (542) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $6.93 | $3.5 | -$3.43 | 52% 365-343 (708) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $2.5 | -$2.35 | 61% 485-306 (791) |
Invested
$0.97
Value
$8.31
PnL
+$7.34
Record
54%
305-265 (570)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$5
PnL
-$3.8
Record
59%
512-354 (866)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$5
PnL
-$3.6
Record
43%
233-309 (542)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$3.43
Record
52%
365-343 (708)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$2.35
Record
61%
485-306 (791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.