Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

XRP Up or Down - November 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (58%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $153 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

Total Value

$153.43

Combined PnL

-$1.11

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$72.14

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$1.74

Down5 traders

Total Value$81.29

Total Shares86

Combined PnL+$0.63

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$40.61	$36.34	-$4.27	54% 305-265 (570)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 99¢	$28.6	$28.75	+$0.14	83% 177-37 (214)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 80.7¢	$29.61	$24.94	+$0.95	59% 512-354 (866)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 97¢	$23.6	$23.24	-$0.37	98% 601-10 (611)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 40.5¢	$8.1	$12.2	+$4.1	46% 234-273 (507)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$14.64	$11.42	-$3.23	39% 195-306 (501)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$5.5	$5	-$0.5	45% 208-254 (462)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$1.26	$3.66	+$2.4	61% 485-306 (791)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$1.05	$3.05	+$2	52% 365-343 (708)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.5	-$0.1	46% 138-161 (299)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99¢	$1.86	$1.87	+$0.01	42% 134-186 (320)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$2.71	$0.47	-$2.24	55% 325-263 (588)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$40.61

Value

$36.34

PnL

-$4.27

Record

54%

305-265 (570)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$28.6

Value

$28.75

PnL

+$0.14

Record

83%

177-37 (214)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$29.61

Value

$24.94

PnL

+$0.95

Record

59%

512-354 (866)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$23.6

Value

$23.24

PnL

-$0.37

Record

98%

601-10 (611)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$4.1

Record

46%

234-273 (507)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$14.64

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$3.23

Record

39%

195-306 (501)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

45%

208-254 (462)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$2.4

Record

61%

485-306 (791)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$2

Record

52%

365-343 (708)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

138-161 (299)

0x50f7<$100

Down

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

134-186 (320)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$2.24

Record

55%

325-263 (588)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.