XRP Up or Down - November 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (63%) · Down at 100¢ · $164 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Down
8
Down 63%
$164.31
$8.51
94.5¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $95.88 | $96.8 | +$0.92 | 98% 601-10 (611) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 98.6¢ | $38.14 | $34.82 | -$2.62 | 59% 512-354 (866) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1.68 | $10.5 | +$8.82 | 41% 240-341 (581) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $8.5 | $9.95 | +$1.45 | 55% 325-263 (588) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $6.57 | $5.9 | -$0.67 | 54% 305-265 (570) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $5.15 | $5 | -$0.15 | 46% 138-161 (299) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $0.53 | $1.31 | +$0.79 | 45% 208-254 (462) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $0.03 | -$0.03 | 39% 195-306 (501) |
Invested
$95.88
Value
$96.8
PnL
+$0.92
Record
98%
601-10 (611)
Invested
$38.14
Value
$34.82
PnL
-$2.62
Record
59%
512-354 (866)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.68
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$8.82
Record
41%
240-341 (581)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.5
Value
$9.95
PnL
+$1.45
Record
55%
325-263 (588)
Invested
$6.57
Value
$5.9
PnL
-$0.67
Record
54%
305-265 (570)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
46%
138-161 (299)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$1.31
PnL
+$0.79
Record
45%
208-254 (462)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.03
Record
39%
195-306 (501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.