XRP Up or Down - November 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $38 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 80%
$37.93
-$15.02
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $31.87 | $19.5 | -$9.65 | — |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $9.49 | $8.08 | -$1.41 | — |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 84.1¢ | $8.01 | $4.76 | -$3.25 | — |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.1 | $3.08 | -$3.02 | — |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.2 | $2.5 | +$2.3 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.