Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

24 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 98¢ · $134K held · ended Nov 3

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$134.5K

Combined PnL

$36.1K

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 98.2¢

+35% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

24 of 30 top traders (80%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes24 traders

Total Value$134.2K

Total Shares136,770

Combined PnL+$39.5K

No6 traders

Total Value$258.03

Total Shares13,945

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

185h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 30

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 98¢	$344.53	$38.5K	+$5.1K	0% 0-63 (63)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 80.3¢	$21.8K	$26.6K	+$4.8K	0% 0-74 (74)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 11.2¢	$1.9K	$17.0K	+$15.0K	— 3-5 (8)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 76.8¢	$7.4K	$9.5K	+$2.1K	0% 0-122 (122)
seal7	Yesavg 26.1¢	$1.9K	$7.2K	+$5.3K	0% 0-46 (46)
SA SaylorMoon	Yesavg 76¢	$5.4K	$7.0K	+$1.6K	0% 0-41 (41)
GoriIIa	Yesavg 95.1¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	+$175.26	—
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 89.5¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$379.87	0% 0-35 (35)
AN anciano	Yesavg 12.2¢	$431.58	$3.5K	+$3.0K	—
Lolakis	Yesavg 93.1¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$153.15	0% 0-29 (29)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Yesavg 84¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$422.99	0% 0-181 (181)
The-Joker	Yesavg 78.9¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$463.68	— 0-2 (2)
DonaldinhoTrumpito	Yesavg 80.2¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$260.33	52% 79-73 (152)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 92.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$66.43	— 0-2 (2)
BA balerinacapuchina	Yesavg 81.9¢	$912.85	$1.1K	+$180.89	0% 0-23 (23)
andy29	Yesavg 76.5¢	$765	$981.5	+$216.5	0% 0-25 (25)
mr.ozi	Yesavg 81.1¢	$519.04	$628.16	+$109.12	50% 112-111 (223)
ifyouloveme	Yesavg 93.3¢	$602.98	$591.82	+$29.52	—
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 94¢	$500	$490.75	+$20.75	0% 0-30 (30)
RhabarberbarbarbarCTR	Noavg 22.6¢	$2.6K	$209.2	$-2.3K	—
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Yesavg 95.2¢	$172.01	$168.83	+$5.07	— 0-2 (2)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 32.4¢	$18.15	$55.08	+$36.93	65% 43-23 (66)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$3.89	$34.35	+$30.46	0% 0-129 (129)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$3.48	$32.39	+$28.91	— 2-17 (19)
thanksforplayinCTR	Noavg 14.6¢	$198.5	$25.12	-$173.38	—